I don't know. That's the simple answer. The good folks over at the Oil Drum blog http://www.theoildrum.com/ would be where I'd start looking. Otherwise, I'd have to spend a fair amount of time to answer your question, and I'd never be convinced that it was accurate. Also, this is where I miss Nick, this is his field. Mine is metals, and that's complicated enough for one career. Here's what I know I don't know:

Current reserves are hard to estimate, as the reporting of same are inconsistant, or out-right lies. Many OPEC members report the same number of barrels every year, for decades now. Odd, that.

Recoverable resources are always in doubt. You don't really know until you've stuck in the straw.

Undiscovered resources are, as I have said, an arm-wave. Usually these are taken as the total amount of sedimentary rocks in a basin, applying an average based on potental source rocks and reservoir rocks, and throwing a number out.

Don't trust me for an order of magnitude estimate. Geology can get sloppy with decimals.

How long have we got? Beats me, too many damn variables. My opinion is that we are at peak oil, but it will be a plateau as opposed to a peak. That's the production curve. The discovery curve is not significantly increasing, as far as I know. That's a caveat, those with more time to get the latest data are asked to do so. As I recall, the number of drill rigs is going up, but the discoveries are not going up at the same rate. As you know, the area under the discovery curve (total oil discovered) is all that can be produced. A flat-topped production curve might just predict a rather steep escarpment on the other side of the mesa.

Sorry I have to join those Texas oilmen in giving you a non-answer, ER. In my own opinion, after decades of semi-professional interest in the matter, we are on the back-side of the petroleum interval. The decline of oil will last decades, probably faster than the ascent. Hopefully that will allow the developement of other energy sources, and will, as the economics shift towards conservation and alternatives.

However, before that happens, every last opportunity will be drilled: offshore, wildlife refuge, sensitive ecosytem, deep-sea, if it might have oil, it will have a straw stuck in it, sooner or later. And it will not slake our thirst.

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