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The Space Race and How to Lose It

The Space Race and How to Lose It


The Chang'e 7- China's latest mission to the moon- was originally scheduled to launch August 24th, it was delayed for unknown reasons and is now scheduled to launch sometime in 2027. This is a strategically important mission to take seriously for multiple reasons:

1) The mission will include a lander which is intended to land on the rim of Shackleton crater at the lunar South Pole. This is strategically critical since the permanently shadowed regions in this crater likely contain significant amounts of water ice. Water ice would give those with access to it and the technology to exploit it an immense economic advantage when it comes to permanent outposts on the moon. If the mission is successful, China will be the first to measure this directly- this is the first lander near a permanently shadowed region. While the lander will not be in a permanently shadowed region, it includes a smaller mobile hopping probe that will allow measurements of the regolith over a wider area of the crater, potentially making direct measurements of the regolith water content in the permanently shadowed regions.



2) The Chang'e 7 mission is claimed to include a laser communications capability. NASA was first to demonstrate laser communications from the moon back in 2013 with the Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD) that flew on the LADEE probe (This was the first mission I worked on at NASA). Downlink data rates of up to 622Mbps were achieved to 2 ground terminals (located at White Sands Complex, New Mexico, and at JPL's Table Mountain Facility). This past April NASA did its second Lunar laser communications link to the crewed Artemis II mission at the moon. Unfortunately this second laser communications link took a step BACKWARDS in data rate with a maximum data rate of just ~250Mbps.

While China has been investing heavily in building a ground terminal network to support a rapidly growing number of optical communications missions, NASA has not. NASA used the same 2 Ground terminals it used 13 years ago. Thankfully the Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT) project partnered with the Australian National University to add their optical ground terminal at Mount Stromlo in Canberra. This additional ground terminal (built in partnership with the LCOT team at NASA-Goddard at a tiny fraction of the cost of the other 2 US ground terminals) GREATLY expanded the available downlink time- otherwise the optical downlink would have been limited to the times when New Mexico and California had line of sight to the moon.

While the optical data rate the terminal on Chang'e 7 will have is not publicly known, China has demonstrated 400Gbps inter-satellite links, and 120Gbps satellite to ground links. It is not a stretch to suspect that their downlink rate will be greater than NASA's record of 622Mbps. If the Chinese downlink rate does exceed the 2013 record it will come at time when NASA is unprepared. Not only did NASA take a step backwards in data rate for the Artemis II mission, it completely failed to appreciate the importance of optical communications, and didn't make plans for optical communications to even be included on Artemis III & IV- and as a result is scrambling at the last minute and put out an RFI to get a data rate that is at least greater than just 12Mbps...!

Despite the advantages of higher data rate being obvious, the indispensable nature of optical communications was overlooked by those making the critical communications decisions until the results from the Artemis II mission forced them to acknowledge it. This has put us at a strategic disadvantage, and one that will be quite publicly obvious if the Chang'e 7 does indeed set the new optical communications record from the moon. The scale of what you can do at the moon is determined- in large part- by the data rate of your communications to and from the moon. This is a simple fact that has been understood by China, and over the past 13 years they have not just been catching up to NASA, but surpassing it in optical communications. They have not only been flying ambitious laser communications missions, but also have been building the ground terminal network to support them. NASA has not seriously invested in building an optical ground network... in fact it has done away with programs that attempted to furnish a cost-effective design for optical ground terminals. Now- as a result- we are at a serious strategic disadvantage as the race for the lunar south pole starts to heat up. It will be costly to make up for over a decade of inaction.

PERHAPS, if China does set the new downlink data rate record in the Chang'e 7 mission, those responsible for NASA's lasercom decisions will be forced to re-evaluate their priorities- otherwise we effectively turn the future of lunar exploration over to others- inflicting permanent damage to our future.

The Chang'e 7- China's latest mission to the moon- was originally scheduled to launch August 24th, it was delayed for unknown reasons and is now scheduled to launch sometime in 2027. This is a strategically important mission to take seriously for multiple reasons:

1) The mission will include a lander which is intended to land on the rim of Shackleton crater at the lunar South Pole. This is strategically critical since the permanently shadowed regions in this crater likely contain significant amounts of water ice. Water ice would give those with access to it and the technology to exploit it an immense economic advantage when it comes to permanent outposts on the moon. If the mission is successful, China will be the first to measure this directly- this is the first lander near a permanently shadowed region. While the lander will not be in a permanently shadowed region, it includes a smaller mobile hopping probe that will allow measurements of the regolith over a wider area of the crater, potentially making direct measurements of the regolith water content in the permanently shadowed regions.



2) The Chang'e 7 mission is claimed to include a laser communications capability. NASA was first to demonstrate laser communications from the moon back in 2013 with the Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD) that flew on the LADEE probe (This was the first mission I worked on at NASA). Downlink data rates of up to 622Mbps were achieved to 2 ground terminals (located at White Sands Complex, New Mexico, and at JPL's Table Mountain Facility). This past April NASA did its second Lunar laser communications link to the crewed Artemis II mission at the moon. Unfortunately this second laser communications link took a step BACKWARDS in data rate with a maximum data rate of just ~250Mbps.

While China has been investing heavily in building a ground terminal network to support a rapidly growing number of optical communications missions, NASA has not. NASA used the same 2 Ground terminals it used 13 years ago. Thankfully the Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT) project partnered with the Australian National University to add their optical ground terminal at Mount Stromlo in Canberra. This additional ground terminal (built in partnership with the LCOT team at NASA-Goddard at a tiny fraction of the cost of the other 2 US ground terminals) GREATLY expanded the available downlink time- otherwise the optical downlink would have been limited to the times when New Mexico and California had line of sight to the moon.

While the optical data rate the terminal on Chang'e 7 will have is not publicly known, China has demonstrated 400Gbps inter-satellite links, and 120Gbps satellite to ground links. It is not a stretch to suspect that their downlink rate will be greater than NASA's record of 622Mbps. If the Chinese downlink rate does exceed the 2013 record it will come at time when NASA is unprepared. Not only did NASA take a step backwards in data rate for the Artemis II mission, it completely failed to appreciate the importance of optical communications, and didn't make plans for optical communications to even be included on Artemis III & IV- and as a result is scrambling at the last minute and put out an RFI to get a data rate that is at least greater than just 12Mbps...!

Despite the advantages of higher data rate being obvious, the indispensable nature of optical communications was overlooked by those making the critical communications decisions until the results from the Artemis II mission forced them to acknowledge it. This has put us at a strategic disadvantage, and one that will be quite publicly obvious if the Chang'e 7 does indeed set the new optical communications record from the moon. The scale of what you can do at the moon is determined- in large part- by the data rate of your communications to and from the moon. This is a simple fact that has been understood by China, and over the past 13 years they have not just been catching up to NASA, but surpassing it in optical communications. They have not only been flying ambitious laser communications missions, but also have been building the ground terminal network to support them. NASA has not seriously invested in building an optical ground network... in fact it has done away with programs that attempted to furnish a cost-effective design for optical ground terminals. Now- as a result- we are at a serious strategic disadvantage as the race for the lunar south pole starts to heat up. It will be costly to make up for over a decade of inaction.

PERHAPS, if China does set the new downlink data rate record in the Chang'e 7 mission, those responsible for NASA's lasercom decisions will be forced to re-evaluate their priorities- otherwise we effectively turn the future of lunar exploration over to others- inflicting permanent damage to our future.