...that the guy who wins the first debate carries momentum and the loser bears the burden of trying to come back. With a month to go and the VP debate next, it means at least half that time is Romney's to exploit.

It's no coincidence THe Daily Caller unearthed the lecture Obama gave praising Jeremiah Wright and sounding angry. Everyone is looking for his angry, aggressive tone to surface, so he's sort of caught. He's damned if he doesn't go on the attack and damned if he does and appears like an angry black man.

But because this probably already cost him 4 or 5 points in the swing states he will HAVE to be more aggressive. Unfortunately, that style won't compare well with Romney's calm, measured "voice of reason" tone he has perfected for these debates. So it could backfire.

I still think if Biden does poorly, it will cement the deal for Romney among most independents. He will have had over two weeks worth of momentum, that is hard to counter. Bush senior had the "Quayle factor" and no one is talking about the scary fact that Biden is one heartbeat away from the Presidency. The "Biden factor" is an issue every time he opens his mouth. This time he wont be debating Sarah Palin.