Look at the electoral college math. Romney NEEDS to peel votes off Obama to win. O is leading or within the margin of error in all the swing states except NC. In Ohio 30% of voters have already voted. Of those O has a huge lead and of the not yet voted it's tied. O has a superior field operation in Ohio.

As for the national polls you like to quote so much, the aggregate is essentially tied. As for Gallup it has gone from 7+ for Romney to 3+ for Romney in the two days since the debate, and keep in mind it is a 7 day tracking poll so most of it's data is pre-debate.

Have you looked at O's job approval ratings?