You can see patterns, sometimes even repetitions and similarities. Yes, we lie to each other. But most often we lie to ourselves. But its not a question of conspiracies and cabals. People do what is in their best interests, and convince themselves those are also the interests of the nation, even the world. People follow the line of least resistance. There are eddies and back-currents, and lots of turbulence, but in general, water flows downhill and there is an entropic flow to it all. Up close it's random and chaotic, but if you step back far enough, you can see the current flowing down the line. Its the resolution of time, at higher magnifications the laminar flow breaks down.

A century or two later you look at the chronicles and say "What were they thinking, what could have possessed them to do that?" But while its actually happening, people just react to stimuli as best they can. Its like Brownian Motion.

Still, in the long tun, there is progress. Things do get better. But never as fast or as completely as we'd like. And every now and then you back slide and lose ground, or even have to start over.