Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to I gave you two examples of two states

You gave an example of a state and a county

In the case of the state, you showed 0.22% switched from Democrat to Republican. The county example was 1000 switched, out of about 100000 registered democrats in that county. So approximately 1% of democratic voters, 2.4% of registered democrats.

That County is also overwhelmingly democrat...**

You seem to have a problem with numbers... no interpretation of the numbers gives you a lot... and there is no way they will somehow swing the county to favor a republican candidate...

I doubt these numbers are unique to this election cycle. (Just checked, these are not unusual numbers- see HERE)

In 2008:

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.


That said, I would not be shocked if the number of folks switching sides in BOTH parties is higher than usual. .. Trump has huge support among folks that identify as republican, but are registered as democrat... so some of those may switch to vote for him in the primaries.

And a LOT of Republicans will register as democrats out of disgust for the ugly spectacle the GOP has become....

**In 2012 Obama won the county: 63.2 %, 74,300 votes were cast for Obama...
1000/74,300 gives 1.3% and that assumes the 1000 came from the group that voted for Obama in 2012

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