Trump rightly figures he can get away with a much more devastating military response than he can with a first strike. He'll have a free hand to crush N Korea if it attacks, while if he does a pre-emptive strike, he'll be expected to be "surgical" and "precise" (spell that "token"). Trump knows if the other guy swings first, no one will blame you if you kick him in the balls.

But we haven't fought this kind of war with this kind of enemy in a long time, and we've not fought a major war in Asia (never a good idea for us) in a long time, especially when we have so many rivals and allies so close to the action. No one knows just how it will turn out.

I'm not worried about N Korea winning. I'm afraid of what N Korea will do if they think they're going to lose. N Korea's not just a nuke power, they have bio, cyber and chem weapons, too, and they'll probably unleash them on S Korea, and Japan. just for spite. And both China and Russia will suffer collateral damage. They are not going to just sit around and do nothing. They may not get involved in the hostilities, but you can count on them doing everything they can to make life miserable for us. Remember, Russia and China have big naval forces stationed in the area.

N Korea has a modern, well equipped conventional army with over a million men. We have 30,000 troops there, of which only a few actual combat brigades are involved. Our ground role will be strictly a trip wire. If the S Koreans decide to sit this one out, or restrict our use of their bases, and if we don't have full naval and air support from the Japanese, we may be forced to nuke the entire country just to cover our retreat. There's a lot of opportunities for something to go wrong, especially if the other guy gets desperate and starts doing something really stupid.