This is Trump's third red-line moment with the Iranians. The first was when they shot down our drone, the second was the Revolutionary Guard hijacking of ships in the Persian Gulf (which, by the way, continues even though it is no longer publicized in our press). Now we have the attack on the Saudi tank farm. Trump has been talking real tough, but his bluff is being called and so far he's done nothing.

Whether or not the Iranians have done something that needs to be punished or not is really irrelevant--I'm certainly not arguing those crazy ass ragheads are nice guys. But the point is, when you talk badass tough publicly and then meekly back down privately, it sends a
clear message, as Obama found out the hard way.

The screw up is a classic Trump opportunity squander: He has allowed the Iranians to take the initiative so that now anything Trump does will accomplish nothing. If he strikes at the Iranians, it looks like he's beating up on a poor, helpless victim and kowtowing to the Saudis; not to mention the possibility his raid will either accomplish nothing, or even turn out badly. Military aggression is, after all, inherently risky. Planes get shot down, pilots get paraded before TV cameras, tankers (and destroyers!) get torpedoed, collateral damage happens, you know the drill. And no matter what, the mullahs will have plenty of time to plan a counter of their own, at a time and place of their own choosing. And no matter what happens, recent rising tensions provoked by Washington make it look like the US is picking on yet another helpless, third world innocent.

If you talk tough, you need to do it diplomatically,through back channels, so you, (and your opponent!) have the opportunity to save face later on. And you should never fail to follow up on a public threat. Already, Mr Trump has a reputation for blustering solely for the benefit of his base, it no longer seems to have much effect on his opponents.

Mr Trump has repeatedly broadcast to the world he is indecisive, cowardly, and a liar. For a while there, he had built up a reputation as a madman who had to be humored lest he do something really stupid, now he's coming across as a wimp with a big mouth and no balls.