Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Be Prepared

Its not likely to be that bad.

But its certainly not impossible. And I have no doubt the Trump gang, both under his direct influence and those scattered out among his disorganized and unofficial minions would have the slightest compunction about trying it. Still, the potential and the will is there, but that does not mean it is going to happen that way.

We tend to think of revolutions as binary conflicts between two sides, an evil one and a good one. Whether the faction trying to wrest power from the other is the good one is usually decided by the winner, although the final verdict is history's. But revolutions are not struggles between opposing philosophies, or partisans. They are chaos, they are confusion and melee, with many actors, and with shifting alliances of convenience operating in a vacuum of power and information where perception matters more than any particular ideology or organization. The winner is the group or charismatic individual whose coalition is left after the dust settles, and it then uses its surviving resources to dominate and absorb its former allies, and disperse and destroy its former enemies. The real revolution begins AFTER the king, or government is deposed and the rebels fight it out amongst themselves to determine who takes power.

Study the great revolutions of history, the English, the American, the French, the Russian, and the German. Some were violent, some were relatively peaceful, all were unique in detail, but the real conflict begins during the period of consolidation that follows, not during the heady days of barricades and banners that precedes them. And of course, who is the Establishment and who are the Rebels is only determined with certainty later.

Other than a few books read, I can claim no special expertise in the dynamics of revolutionary change, of coup and mutiny. I've never been in one, although my family has, in Cuba, and I have had the opportunity to talk to numerous eyewitnesses and participants--on both sides. Revolution, like fascism or communism, can come from either the right or left, but its features are remarkably similar.

So how can this knowledge help us now? I can't deny that the grim scenarios described in RL's post won't happen here. It is certainly possible. But I don't think they are probable, either. My instincts tell me Trump is going to lose the election, and any attempt by him to reverse its outcome will fail. The REAL revolution will come later, perhaps much later. I think, like the counter-culture of the 1960s, this one is just a rehearsal. I was in the middle of that one, and I see much of the same dynamic at play, morphed to meet the times.

America has been fighting this war for a long time. Ever since the beginning. We just haven't recognized it because the superficial issues change with every generation.

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