NATO presents no military threat to Russia whatsoever. As long as any future conflict remains conventional, that is, non-nuclear, the combined military forces of Western Europe cannot possibly overcome the Russian military. Even with unlimited US support, which would take years to build up considering the current sorry state of the Western Alliance, Russia has nothing to fear from the West's combined military forces. It would take a decade of military build-up for NATO to catch up. The last time the West (actually, only a part of the West) invaded Russia was over 80 years ago.

What Russia really fears is a collection of prosperous, politically free states on its borders which would point out the shortcomings of the Russian political and economic system. Russia does not fear foreign arms, it fears foreign ideas and attitudes infiltrating its oligarchy. Russia is a gangster state run by crooked businessmen. None of this has anything to do with Capitalism or Communism. It never had anything to do with ideology.

Russia's response now, as it was during the post-WWII Soviet Cold War era, is to use bullying and intimidation to keep the West divided and fearful into allowing it to maintain a ring of buffer states (the satellites) to insulate itself from dangerous Western ideas, and to provide a military trip-wire against possible military intervention from the West down the line. This has the added advantage that the satellites will bear the expense of providing Russia's first line of defense. After all, that is the function NATO provides for the USA, isn't it? NATO doesn't do much to defend Europe, it functions primarily as a trip-wire in case Russia moves first. It is primarily designed to help America, which is why Europeans have always been so ambivalent about participating fully in it. NATO is no threat to Russia now, but 10 years from now, who knows?

Russia knows it has little to gain from invading, or even occupying Ukraine. But it has everything to gain by demonstrating it has the capability to do so anytime it wants. It is also useful to demonstrate you can respond quickly to potential conflict by deploying and supplying a massive force on short notice. Its good training, and it knows that is something the USA is VERY good at, once it gets off its ass and decides to do it. Look at Desert Storm, 30 years ago, and, on a smaller scale, the Dunkirk US evacuation from Afghanistan last year. However, Putin miscalculated the resolve of the West, the US, NATO and Ukraine itself. Instead of the cowering and quivering Putin expected from a weak and demoralized alliance, he got a credible response, and the USA did not even have to threaten military action. Donald Trump did everything he could to emasculate NATO (I suspect, under Putin's direction and with Putin's support). Biden has managed to undo that damage in only a year-without actually committing himself to any specific plan! He deserves immense credit for that.

Putin miscalculated the Western response, he had just the opposite result he had hoped for. Now he risks coming off as a spineless wimp when he withdraws his force (which he was planning to do anyway). And that is scary, because he may now feel compelled to do something with it just to save face. This little adventure is putting a strain on Russian military budgets, and Russian business is based primarily on selling Euros oil and gas. Pretty soon, his constituency (yes, he has one) is going to be asking; "Why did we do all this, what did we accomplish? What's in it for us?" Rather than giving them an answer, he may go for broke. Neither of those choices is a very good one, Putin has painted himself into a corner.

In the long term, Russia has a legitimate interest in making sure its borders are secure. It has tried to do this by bullying its European neighbors, just like the US has bullied its neighbors in the Caribbean and South America. Russia was invaded by Napoleon, then the Kaiser, then Hitler. The situation may arise again in another 10 or 20 years. But this is now, 2022, and its starting to look like Vladimir moved too far, too fast, too soon.