Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to I agree with you in part...

I don't doubt the world will survive climate change.

Its survived a lot worse in the past.

I'm willing to bet humanity will survive as a species regardless of the damage caused by climate change--it too, has survived much worse in the past.

What I fear is that the progress and gains we've made since the Enlightenment will be severely rolled back. This will include advances in science, technology, political and intellectual freedom and cultural progress. The world of the future will not just be threatened by climate, it will also suffer from overpopulation, resource shortages, massive migrations, disease and political and economic conflict that will be aggravated by the turmoil and disruption caused by climate change, pollution and sea-level rise.

Most of the past major crises and disruptions you allude to in your post occurred in a world which was essentially underpopulated and where vast amounts of natural resources remained untouched. This will not be the case in the late 21st century. We're going into this crisis already severely crippled. And we now have a new demon to contend with, nuclear war.

Automobiles became common long before horse-drawn vehicles vanished. What if the horses disappeared and there was no internal combustion to take their place? Whale oil was replaced by petroleum well before the whales ran out. Consider what might have happened if the last whale was killed and there had been no oil in the ground.
The funny part is we kept on hunting whales, almost to extinction, long after it was clear we no longer needed them--simply because it was profitable. Their flesh was still useful as fertilizer, animal feed and gourmet delicacies.

There will be no Marshall Plan or oil shale or fracking for our children. And there will be no hydrogen fusion or space program either. Those activities require huge investment in resources. The only thing in our history we have to compare with this is the fall of the Roman Empire, and that was not an eco-catastrophe, it was simply a failure of the administrative infrastructure. In other words, the managers and capitalists and state bureaucrats simply lost control of the house of cards they had built to live in, soooo comfortably. We lost a thousand years of progress that time, in spite of living in a world filled with easily recoverable resources.

Next time, there won't be any cheap, plentiful, easily accessible sources of energy lying around to rebuild civilization, we will have pissed it all away driving our two-ton SUVs down to the corner 7-11 to buy a pack of smokes. Climate change was just one of those "unanticipated consequences".

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