Most analysts seem to think the NK military machine is incapable of a fast war, and that if they do atack, it will be a 'bonsai charge', very dramatic, destructive but doomed. IOW, after an early showing they will implode.
But perhaps the NKs think they can turn the tables on us, and win with a lightning blow and threats of nuclear destruciton against Japan.
I think they would seek to slaughter as many Americans as possible, destroy Seoul, which they see as an icon of American Imperialism, flood the world with propaganda about happy SKs being reunited with their NK bretheren, while simulatneously seeking to blackmail Japan into pressuring the US into cease fire.
If they do this quickly while we are occupied in Iraq, they believe, they could get this.
The famine, fuel shortage, and general collapse of the cleptocracy of the commies is leaving them little room on this. They possibly don't have years of waiting before overwhelming the region and conquering SK. The inevitable collapse of their society must be getting horrorific.
Bush calling their breach of the 1994 agreement for what it is has possibly forced them to move a few years earlier than they wanted. Then again, they seem to be on a very well choreographed plan right now and perhaps all they needed were the 8 years of appeasement they got from clinton.
I think all assumptions about NK should be checked at the door. They are not seriously negotiating. They may have many more nukes than many think.
They may have secret pacts with Iraq to come to Saddam's aid.
And they may have secret agreements with China and Russia.
NK has been building towrads this for years and we should be very aware of the implications of that.
Ed