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Satellite Meteoroid Impact Probability

Between 1963 and 1998, approximately 400 satellites have been launched into geostationary orbit. Conservatively assuming an average lifetime of 8 years per satellite, these satellites accumulated around 3,200 years of in-orbit operation. Over this period, there have been only two failures for which meteoroid impact was identified as the most probable cause.

Satellite designs typically allow for a minimum of fifteen years of background and shower meteoroid activity. The risk of a catastrophic meteoroid impact is many times less than the likelihood of random equipment failure.

The probability of meteoroid impact on a satellite is a function of the satellite's exposed cross-sectional area, the exposure time, and the meteoroid stream intensity. Even if a meteoroid impact occurs, serious damage will not necessarily result, as discussed below. Based on a typical 15-year satellite lifetime, the exposure during an intense Leonid-type meteor storm of one hour's duration is ~0.12 % of the total lifetime exposure at the average background (sporadic plus shower) rate, equivalent to about five days of normal exposure. In the event of a meteor storm the probability of significant damage is estimated to be in the range of 0.00075% to 0.000000375%. This number relies on a number of worst-case assumptions.

The 1998-2000 Leonid showers had no observable effect on the Anik-E and other satellites.

However, despite the numerically low risk, it is not possible to provide complete assurance that satellites will not be affected by the Leonid storm.
(Source)

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