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Re: Professor promotes moon power

""Sorry but there is nobody on the lunar surface able to buy 100 cents per KwH."

[I said:]
Nor is there anyone producing power on the Moon that can sell it on the Moon. But if there was power availiable on the Moon it would be quite easy to find parties interested buying and buying large quantities if the price was 100 cent per kw/h. I would say that 1000 cent per kw/h would be a very cheap price on the Moon- in near term.
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This is a light-years leap of faith that I find unbelievable."

Well, currently it costs *around* $5k-20 per lb of payload delivered to lunar surface- this would include any fuel needed to return to Earth [e.g. returning crew or sample return]. Note: $5,000 is a really low price which MIGHT be possible using some kind of low cost launcher though its quite possible that NASA could spend more than 20k per lb to get something to lunar surface. So if you wanted to over state something you *could* say that rocket fuel on lunar surface is worth $+5,000 per lb.
A better approach is to ask how much would rocket fuel be worth in Lunar orbit (preferably Earth/Moon L1). This fuel could allow you to land on the Moon, used for operation in any of the L points/ GEO, and/or used for going to Mars.
In the beginning stages of a relatively small amount of capital being used (say anything less than 10 billion) in lunar development you wouldn't have the option of using Mass drivers, tethers or any other means other than rockets. So if you wanted to get rocket fuel up from lunar surface to L1 you will need to use rocket fuel to lift rocket fuel (or water which could be converted to rocket fuel at L1). This means if you are going to sell large quantities of Lunar rocket fuel, rocket fuel will need to be cheaper on lunar surface than in Lunar orbit. So to get a rough idea of how much "the wholesale price" lunar rocket fuel, lunar water or lunar power is worth, you would compare the cost of how much would be the lowest possible cost to deliver rocket fuel from Earth to Lunar orbit. This would be "somewhere" around $2,000 per lb. This would then mean that wholesale price of water per lb on the lunar surface would need to be (somewhere around) $1000 or less and the electrical power need to make a lb of rocket fuel $1000 or less.
Since it requires *around* 2-3 kw hours to convert 1 lb of water into 1 lb of rocket fuel, if you loosely add in the cost of the infrastructure needed to process the water into rocket, you get the top end of how much you could sell electrical power on te lunar surface- around $100 per kw/h.

Of course all this is complicated with many unknown factors, but IF you "simply" had "a power pole" on the Moon which you could get cheap electrical power (10 times more than what you pay on Earth: $1 per kw/h)
then it would make it much easier to solve the other problems. Now, I think $1 per kw is too low a price in the near term and that $10 per kw/h might be a more reasonable target (still very cheap in terms of today's costs). Now if you could simply buy water on the lunar surface for 100 per lb and power at $10 per kw/h this would get you rocket fuel costing far less than $500 per lb on lunar surface and should be able to sell at good profit at $2000 (or less) per lb in lunar orbit.
If someone can buy rocket fuel at Lunar orbit at $2000 per lb and can buy it at $500 per lb on lunar surface, then their cost of doing anything on the Moon should be at least halved of what is now is possible- it would lower cost and increase amount of payload deliverable using present avaliable launchers. With Mars manned mission it should lower it's cost, increase payload, and decrease travel time to Mars.

NOW, I far as I'm concerned the correct sequence is FIRST to put water into Earth orbit- water test payloads, then use water to start gas stations in LEO. This is what I call "water in orbit" and I have discuss this at length in the past posts.

"We do agree with your last point that politics is the inhibitor towards commercial space. Unfortunately, I see nothing on the horizon that will change this."

I see some things which could cause some hope in near term.
-gb

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