"What I'm saying that they *can* develop a manned lunar outpost if they want (hell, so can we). But by 2015? I don't know if that's realistic or financially feasible considering they got more than six times the people to feed than the U.S. does."
Well, it largely depend on their development of the booster in the same catogory as the Ariane V, Delta-IVH/Altas V, or Proton.
You *could* get to the Moon with a smaller booster but it's certainly harder. They could start & finish developing this boosterin 4-5 years- and they are apparently already started. Which means they could start going to the Moon by say 2005 or wait until this new larger booster has been tested and "manrated" before heading towards the Moon. So by 2015 seems like plenty of time.
Whether they can afford it, depends on "how's it's done"- why are they going, etc. They certainly have the technology and enough capital if they wanted to go. The question of whether they can afford it "could" similar to a question, "Can you afford to make lot's of money?".
China going to the Moon could merely be a stunt, or it could a way of involved with big future business.
I'm not talking merely about "spin-off" technology, I mean cold hard cash.