http://utenti.lycos.it/paoloulivi/chinamoo.html
Excerpts I thought interesting:
"The impression I am getting from the Chinese planetary program's recent flood of rumours that began in summer 2000, is that after many years of the program being studied but not funded, it has finally got some political approval. In my opinion, a program to launch an unmanned spacecraft to the Moon may be the next major goal after taikonauts start to fly into space. Since the technology is probably mature I am expecting to see this program happen in about five years time. "

"this article deals with the advantages of using a phasing orbit approach for reaching the Moon. This approach, first used by the Japanese Hiten spacecraft, uses multiple very eccentric Earth orbits before intersecting the Moon"

"The Chinese article starts with an in depth review of the state of the development of planetary penetrators snince the late Fifties and goes on to describe the state of the art in other countries. It then describes the development of similar technology in China, apparently recycling data on weaponry designed to attack heavily armoured targets, such as nuclear power plants and data on the reinforcement of such targets"

"This paper is authored by a Chinese author and two Japanese ones. It concerns measurements of the lunar gravity field to be carried out by a small spinning subsatellite released by the Japanese SELENE probe in 2004. It is possible that Chinese scientists and engineers will somehow participate to this Japanese lunar mission."

I think that the possible relationship China and Japan as far going to the Moon is an important aspect to consider. There is no question that Japan has strong interest in the Moon, they also have more than enough robotic/electronic technology to make it possible. One thing that Japan lacks is cheap large boosters, and China has these. So, it's a natural fit.
European countries also have good motive to work with Chinese.
In the above link the author predicts that the China program: "After 2030, manned missions and the establishment of a lunar base will follow."
I don't think that it will take so long. But maybe, this is actually what the Chinese are planning, I think that either NASA or someone in private sector will beat this date.