I think it will be harder for the Chinese.
They are not exactly at the top of the list of aggressive innovation.
Hell, they couldn't even get their geosynchronus stuff nor their ICBMs to target worth a damn if not for convenient nods and winks.
My frank bet is a pissed off US/Russian federation makes it happen, probably through a corporate veil of really obsessed geeks who will do ANYTHING to get their asses up there.
The Chinese have historically been way too cautious, and the centrifugal forces in that society will, imho, fling it nicely apart before they get much of any manhours in space.
Ed