While Rutan is still certainly the odds-on favorite for the X-Prize, the reason I feel that I have a pretty good chance of sneaking past him is that he is making it a whole lote more complicated than it needs to be. Our entire single stage X-Prize vehicle will be quite a lot simpler than his carrier aircraft alone.

He may be twice as "good", but if he is making four times as much work for himself...

The one wild card is the regulatory side of things. A carrier airplane that flies well out to sea before launching has a far easier time getting launch approval. Of course, then you need recovery boats and such in addition to your carrier aircraft and space vehicle. This can also go the other way -- I know people that are genuinely worried that Rutan will go and fly something without proper permits, and make life difficult for everyone else. If he does that, he doesn't get to claim the X-Prize.

We are starting our formal talks with AST about RLV development at the end of this month in DC. We plan on building a single person 100km vehicle before the X-Prize vehicle in any case.

John Carmack
www.armadilloaerospace.com