As someone who took tons of flak on the MSNBC BBS for telling the Space Cadets we were NOT going to Mars in the next 10-20 years, even I find this unduly pessimistic. Unless society collapses and the answer is never, we will definitely go to Mars this century.

Given continued computing advances per Moore's Law, sometime after 2030 it will be less expensive to design spacecraft because of human level sophisticated computer aided design tools. Along with emerging nanotech in the 2030s, highly capable craft and systems will be available. Nanotech will also mitigate the effects of ionizing radiation on humans. The costs will be within the scope of highly motivated wealthy individuals and organizations and will be partially offset by advt revenue. As early as the mid 2030s but certainly sometime after 2050 crewed Mars exploration will occer, even if it continues to be a minority interest to the public.

-p (Justin will be too old to go)