The Predator is a good first generation unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) but it is still too vulnerable to be truly effective. Because it flies low and slow, the Predator is vulnerable to AAA, SAMs, fighters, and weather.

Still, it's the best UAV we have in service right now. NOVA had an even better episode last Tuesday night that covered the range of UAVs from the Global Hawk through the Predator down to small hand-launched models that can carry a TV camera to allow a company commander to see what lies behind the next hill. It also discussed efforts to develop true UCAVs.

The NOVA episode did make a good point: in the past, UAVs were sold as being "cheap alternatives to manned aircraft." However, a lot of the cheapness comes from leaving out redundant systems like flight controls. As a result, UAVs have a much higher loss rate than manned aircraft. A Predator, while less complex than many homebuilt airplanes, costs around $2 million a copy due to the expensive equipment package onboard. The Global Hawk costs a lot more, some say as much as $40 million a copy (more than an F-16). There have been losses of both UAVs due to flight control failures. Adding redundant flight controls will increase reliability, but cost will also increase.

Still, UAVs and UCAVs are likely to play an ever increasing role in the military. Like 60 Minutes pointed out, that Predator that was shot down in Iraq a couple weeks ago represeted the loss of 5% of the Predator fleet but not a pilot's life.