<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it's in the news, it's too late...
U.S. Campaign Presents Benefits for Russia
September 25, 2001
Summary
Before Sept. 11 Moscow was faced with a U.S. administration that was increasingly unconcerned with Russia's strategic interests. Now America's efforts to combat terrorism are creating an environment that will help Russia refashion its domestic security and international image while extending its sphere of influence.
Analysis
The events of Sept. 11 have awakened an angry activism within America's foreign policy. The U.S. campaign against Osama bin Laden's Al-Qa'ida network is taking multiple forms: the break up terrorist cells the world over, the shutting down of money-laundering centers and the pursuit of bin Laden and the countries that shelter him.
All of these features create opportunities for Russia. If Russian President Vladimir Putin plays his cards right, he can simultaneously mitigate a domestic insurrection, rehabilitate Russia in the eyes of the West and secure long-term control of Central Asia.
The most immediate benefits Moscow can gain by cooperating with Washington would come in its fight against Chechen rebels. America and its allies are rooting out terrorist cells across the world, and Russia will have no problem assisting in this respect. The Kremlin keeps a wary eye on Russia's 20 million Muslims, and increasing the Interior Ministry's powers of investigation has been a developing government aim.
(The Rest of the Story)
Related Analyses:
• Central Asia: Backdoor to Afghanistan
September 18, 2001
• Russia's View, Russia's Options
September 15, 2001
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
U.S. Campaign Presents Benefits for Russia . . .