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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Saudi Royal Politics Are Quicksand for U.S.
September 26, 2001
Summary
Saudi Arabia has refused permission for the United States to conduct retaliatory strikes against Afghanistan from Saudi territory. Riyadh later severed diplomatic relations with the Taliban. The seemingly contradictory moves stem from the debate between government factions over engagement with the United States. This internal debate will escalate and place greater restraints on Saudi-U.S. cooperation.
Analysis
Saudi Arabia on Sept. 23 refused Washington permission to launch retaliatory strikes against Afghanistan from Saudi soil. A few days later, the government severed diplomatic relations with the Taliban, accusing it of harboring terrorists and contradicting Islam, the Arab News, an online Saudi daily, reported Sept. 26.
The Saudi government is divided between factions that favor working with the United States -- partly because of economic benefits and the resulting boost to their own power -- and those who oppose engagement with the West. The internal debate reflects a larger split within Saudi society over the extent and context of engagement with the United States and on the impact that engagement has on Saudi domestic and foreign policy. As the United States prepares for war against an Islamic threat, this debate will escalate, further straining Saudi-U.S. relations.
Ultimately the quarrel stands to undermine future military and economic cooperation between the two countries. It also could widen the divide within the royal family and possibly set the stage for a power shift.
Refusal to allow the United States use of the Prince Sultan Air Base for retaliatory strikes against any Muslim nation came as an apparent surprise to Washington. Only days before, Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Walk, commander of the U.S. Central Command's air operations, moved his home base from South Carolina to Saudi Arabia.
At first glance the refusal appears a reversal of Saudi government policy, but another explanation is more likely: It may have been the result of compromise between pro-U.S. and anti-U.S. factions in Riyadh. After rejecting Washington's request, the government moved quickly to sever ties with the Taliban -- appeasing the United States. The government, however, was likely less concerned with appeasement than maintaining a crucial political balance within the royal family and Saudi society.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Saudi Royal Politics Are Quicksand for U.S.. . .