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STRATFOR.com
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STRATFOR Intelligence Briefing: Hot Spots in the War on Terror
October 01, 2001
The United States is building up forces in the Middle East and South Asia in preparation for a possible attack on Afghanistan, where terror suspect Osama bin Laden is in hiding. With Washington focusing its military efforts on a single target, bin Laden and his allies will likely seek ways to diffuse the concentration of forces near Afghanistan by exploiting existing tensions and unrest in other nations around the globe.
Pakistan, Egypt and Indonesia are among the top targets for these attacks. Not only are these nations already strained by internal Islamic and political unrest, they are also strategically vital to U.S. operations. Should one or more of these three countries fall into widespread internal chaos or undergo a forced regime change, U.S. forces would have little choice but to respond or face a serious challenge to supply lines and operations in the Arabian Sea.
Aside from these primary targets, there are several other places around the world where, directly or indirectly, bin Laden and his allies could ignite brushfires that would distract Washington or its coalition partners. Although trouble in these other states would be unlikely to draw U.S. forces, attacks on U.S. citizens and assets, both civilian and military, could increase domestic pressure on the U.S. government.
As U.S. forces continue to ramp up for a major military strike, follow-on terrorist strikes in the United States, Canada and Western Europe, as well as flare-ups in hotspots around the world, could tax the coalition's ability to remain focused on a single, discreet target. The following is a list of potential hotspots where, directly or indirectly, bin Laden and his allies could fan the flames of existing tensions:
* PAKISTAN
* EGYPT
* INDONESIA
* PHILIPPINES
* MALAYSIA
* BANGLADESH
* INDIA
* CENTRAL ASIA (KYRGYZSTAN, TAJIKISTAN, UZBEKISTAN)
* SOUTH AFRICA
* KENYA
* TANZANIA
* NIGERIA
* SUDAN
* MOROCCO
* ALBANIA
* SOUTH AMERICA (ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, BRAZIL, PARAGUAY)
* GEORGIA
* RUSSIA
* MACEDONIA
(The Rest of the Story)
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Related Analyses:
* War Plans: A STRATFOR Special Report
Conceptual Framework of the War
* Crisis Center Archive
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Hot Spots in the War on Terror . . .