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STRATFOR.com
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The Geopolitical Price of War
October 2, 2001
By George Friedman
Summary
If the United States wants to fight an effective military campaign in Afghanistan, an alliance with Russia is essential. But cooperation will come with a price. Moscow will increase its influence in Central Asia and may resurrect its domination of the Caucasus. No matter how the anti-terror campaign ends, the biggest winner will not be the United States, but Russia.
Analysis
In World War II, American strategy depended on the Soviet Union breaking the back of the Wehrmacht. The United States, through lend-lease, provided the Soviets with weapons, supplies and technology. This was not only a good move but also an indispensable one, since it was essential to American war aims. Nevertheless, the inevitable consequence was that the Soviets, greatly strengthened by U.S. assistance, became America's rival.
Late in the Cold War, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. The United States, having had its own strength sapped in Vietnam partly because of Soviet assistance to the North Vietnamese, saw an opportunity to return the favor. By arming the Afghan resistance fighters, the United States not only trapped the Soviets in an unwinnable war but also helped create the general crisis of confidence in the Soviet Union that led to its collapse.
There was a price to be paid here as well. Although American support to the Afghan resistance was logical and necessary, given the time and circumstances, the assistance that was provided helped lay the groundwork for the current crisis.
In short, the manner in which each war is fought and concluded lays the groundwork for the next conflict. There are no wars to end all wars. Conflict and warfare are a permanent part of the human condition. It is far more useful to think of war as a single, inseparable thread running throughout the fabric of human history rather than as separate, disconnected episodes. The thread that led to Sept. 11 ultimately can be traced to the 1980s and long before.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Geopolitical Price of War . . .