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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
U.S.-India Ties at Risk
October 3, 2001
Summary
Tensions in Afghanistan and Pakistan are beginning to spill over into Kashmir, the disputed territory between India and Pakistan. But Washington will continue to support the government in Islamabad, which could spell trouble for the blooming strategic dialogue between India and the United States.
Analysis
Suspected Pakistan-based Islamic militants on Oct. 1 exploded a car bomb near the entrance to the state legislature in Jammu-Kashmir, then opened fire on security forces. At least 25 people were killed in the attack, which came a day before Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh was expected in Washington to consult with U.S. President George W. Bush on anti-terrorism efforts.
As Islamic extremists come under fire in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will likely increase their activities in the disputed Kashmir territory that lies between India and Pakistan. But the United States will do little to push the Pakistani government to control the radicals and will instead continue supporting Islamabad in exchange for pressure on Afghanistan's Taliban government.
The increased diplomatic, economic and military ties between the United States and Islamabad will strain Washington's relatively young strategic relationship with India. The ruling party in New Delhi appears to understand the short-term nature of the U.S. shift toward Islamabad. But it will be hard pressed to maintain its pro-U.S. position under increasing domestic pressure.
(The Rest of the Story)
Related Topics:
* Stratfor.com’s Crisis Center Archive
* Stratfor.com’s War Plan Series
Stratfor.com’s Quarterly Forecast:
* Emerging From the Wreckage
(October 1, 2001)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
U.S.-India Ties at Risk . . .