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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Military Brass Behind Musharraf
October 4, 2001
Summary
Though beset by challenges inside and outside of Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf appears to be maintaining a secure power base in the Pakistani Army. An extended tenure and recent reshuffling should keep him in power as tensions between the United States, Afghanistan and fundamentalist Muslims in Pakistan increase.
Analysis
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who was scheduled to retire as chief of the Pakistani army Oct. 6, has renewed his tenure for another three years, the Urdu-language newspaper Nawai Waqt reported Oct 1. Besides the presidency, Musharraf holds the positions of army chief, chief executive and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Committee.
Pakistan -- now a U.S. ally but still the only nation to recognize the hard-line Taliban regime as neighboring Afghanistan's legal ruling body -- is precariously placed in the new U.S.-led war on terrorism, partly because of strong Islamic fundamentalist sentiments within its borders. But despite the dangers to his regime, Musharraf's power base appears relatively secure. The army is one of the most powerful institutions in Pakistan, and -- through his extended tenure and some savvy personnel reshuffling -- Musharraf has solidified his position as its commander and likely will maintain control over his country.
The presidency of Pakistan is an unstable office in the best of times, and Musharraf's stability is extremely important to the United States as it prepares to strike those suspected of organizing the Pentagon and World Trade Center attacks. Musharraf has shown a willingness to cooperate with Washington -- for the right price -- and is no admirer of radical Islamic groups. Should Musharraf tumble, he would very likely be replaced by a regime much more sympathetic to the Taliban.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Military Brass Behind Musharraf . . .