The BBC currently has several good articles on the mysterious Tu-154 crash yesterday into the Black Sea. No comment yet from Jane's, and the single AW&ST article offers little in the way of new information.

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Conclusions: The Tu-154 is no more likely to self-destruct in midair than any other passenger jet now in operation, which is to say that any such explanation for any air disaster is an exceedingly unlikely one.

The chances of a bomb being placed aboard the Tu-154 at Tel Aviv are vanishingly small. It has not been established whether or not the plane in fact made a stopover in Bulgaria, as was reported. If it did, then the possibility of a bomb becomes more viable.

U.S. sensors noted a missile launch at a time which corresponds to the explosion of the Tupolev jetliner. Inconsistencies in the statements of Ukrainian military authorities about the number and types of missiles involved lend credence to speculation that the Tu-154 tragedy was a friendly-fire training error. At the time of its explosion, the Tu-154 was well within the range of least one of the SAM types reported by some sources to have been used in the training exercises.

It is not clear to this observer if U.S. sources for these reports would reveal any possible terrorist angle in this apparent shootdown. As I have speculated in another thread below. it is conceivable that terrorists could put to sea in any one of a number of types of vessals common on this body of water, and launch an attack on a plane from this platform. Why they would do so is not clear.

Further, there is no information available which would indicate that terrorists have gotten their hands on this class of crew-served weapon, but there has been substantial concern in the past about the leaky armories of the former Soviet Union, with tanks, fighters, missiles and all manner of sophisticated weaponry reportedly for sale.

It's a tough call.

I'm not sure the Russians and/or Ukrainians would own up to a mistake of this magnitude, on the one hand, while on the other, I'm not confident that U.S. defense officials who have commented on this event would reveal or confirm any possible terrorist connection, in light of the apparent dissembling about TWA Flight 800, and events which have transpired since.

sp

---notes, links-----

How safe is the Tu-154?
Tu-154 safety

The short answer is that the Tu-154 and 727 are roughly comparable in terms of safety and reliability. Of just under 1,000 Tu-154's built, 28 have been lost in accidents. For the 727, the numbers are c1,600 built, 68 lost to accidents. Further, the article notes, while the 727 flies more often, on average, the Tu-154 generally operates under more difficult conditions, especially weather, and several of the Tu-154 crashes have no bearing on the plane itself.

Analysis: Solving the Black Sea Mystery
The Tu-154 has crashed into some very
deep water.

Terrorism suspected in Black Sea crash
“However, according to one US defence official a satellite detected "the launch of a missile at almost precisely the same time the airliner went down."”
article