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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Push for Peace in Colombia Under Fire
October 5, 2001
Summary
In the past three years, the rebel group known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia has grown in numbers, intensified its attacks against economic and civilian targets and built alliances with international drug traffickers and terrorist groups. Nevertheless, President Andres Pastrana will likely renew by Oct. 7 the demilitarized zone controlled by the rebels. But after May elections, a new president and a stronger military could bring about a heightened anti-rebel campaign.
Analysis
Colombian President Andres Pastrana last week accused the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group of murdering the wife of the country's attorney general. Colombian media cited eyewitnesses who claimed she was shot by a commander of the 59th front of the FARC as the army was closing in on a rebel position. Now the president must decide by Oct. 7 whether to renew the status of the 42,000-square-kilometer demilitarized zone that he granted the FARC in November 1998.
Pastrana will likely decide to maintain the zone, as he has done repeatedly since its inception, in an effort to secure a cease-fire agreement before the end of his term in May. But with a new president coming to power, and a more powerful military flexing its muscle, a larger offensive against the FARC could be in the works.
Pastrana warned this week that he might not grant another extension if the guerrillas do not agree to an immediate bilateral cease-fire and end their kidnappings, extortions and attacks against civilian and economic targets. However, the FARC's top spokesman replied with an 11-point communiqué that rejected attaching any conditions to the rebel zone's extension while refusing to stop any ongoing actions by FARC units.
(Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Push for Peace in Colombia Under Fire . . .