<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Taliban Not Likely to Defend Cities
October 7, 2001
Summary
As it weighs its response to U.S. and British military strikes, Afghanistan's ruling Taliban regime may well look to history. Instead of attempting to hold and supply large cities like Kabul and Kandahar, the Taliban could abandon them, thereby forcing anti-terrorism allies to look harder for targets as pro-Taliban forces evaporate into the countryside.
Analysis
As the United States and its anti-terrorism allies launch military strikes against Afghanistan, the Taliban finds itself in an uncomfortable strategic position. The regime will look to the country's history of fighting Soviet invaders to determine its next move.
The Afghan defeat of the Soviets was predicated on three factors. First, the Soviets occupied the main cities and the lines of supply and communication. The Afghans attacked these road systems and other strategic nodes, forcing the Soviets onto the strategic defensive in trying to secure these lines. Second, the Afghans used this defensive deployment of Soviet forces to impose a tempo of operations and a rate of attrition that the Soviets could not sustain. Whenever the Soviets mounted a major counter-offensive, the Afghans dispersed their forces, moving into inhospitable terrain and exhausting their foes. Third, the Afghans enjoyed sanctuary and supplies flowing through multiple routes from Pakistan. Like the North Vietnamese, sanctuary and supplies were the heart of their operations.
At this moment, the Taliban is well aware it is essentially playing the Soviet side in the war. Occupying major cities like Kabul and Kandahar requires the Taliban to tie down its forces in known locations to defend these cities and the lines of supply and communication that connect them. This means the Taliban is on the strategic defensive, with the potential enemy able to strike at the time and place of its own choosing.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Taliban Not Likely to Defend Cities . . .