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Philippines - Abu Sayyaf
September 10, 2001
Summary
In the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, the Philippine government is intensifying its campaign against the Muslim separatist group Abu Sayyaf, which reportedly has links to Osama bin Laden. Government efforts to crush the Abu Sayyaf may now be more successful, as other Islamic militants in the Philippines distance themselves from bin Laden and associated groups.
Analysis
Three small bombs exploded in hotels in Zamboanga City in the southern Philippines early Oct. 8. Philippine National Security Adviser Roilo Golez blamed the explosions on the Abu Sayyaf, a group of Islamic militants with ties to Osama bin Laden. Local media cited Golez as saying the bombs, which caused no injuries, were a diversionary tactic to distract military forces tracking the group on the nearby island of Basilan.
On the same day, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a larger separatist group that has a cease-fire with the government, announced it would not respond to calls by bin Laden or Afghanistan's ruling Taliban for a jihad, or holy war, on the United States. The MILF's attempt to separate itself from bin Laden's extremist positions may further weaken the more radical Abu Sayyaf, especially when it is under increasingly intense pressure from government forces and investigators.
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has taken a two-pronged approach since coming to power in January in dealing with Islamic militants and separatists in the southern Philippines. On one hand Arroyo pushed forward peace negotiations with the 12,000-member MILF, which had been weakened by a massive military campaign carried out under former Philippine President Joseph Estrada. On the other hand, Arroyo vowed to crush the Abu Sayyaf, which is responsible for a series of kidnappings and bombings around the country.
Following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, the Philippine government intensified its military campaign against the Abu Sayyaf, based primarily in the southern islands of Jolo and Basilan, as well as Mindanao. Within days Philippine troops captured several commanders of the group, including one reportedly responsible for communications and another in charge of operations and intelligence in metro Manila.
A previously captured Abu Sayyaf commander is now reportedly giving evidence to the state, which could add to the government's intelligence efforts against the group. Kumander Global, charged with double murder and piracy for a May 23 attack against the Davao Pearl Farm, applied to the country's Witness Protection Program and will testify against other Abu Sayyaf members, the Manila Times reported.
Perhaps more important though for the government's efforts was the rejection by the MILF of calls to join the jihad against the United States after strikes began on Afghanistan. A MILF spokesman, speaking to Agence France-Presse, said the group's fight is focused on bringing peace to Mindanao, not on Afghanistan.
The rejection of the jihad stems in part from the Arroyo government's negotiating ploys. The government is backing a key role for the MILF in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, an Islamic area established as part of the 1996 peace accords with the Moro National Liberation Front. Both rebel groups have been rivals since the MILF broke away from the MNLF in the early 1990s.
With the government offering a greater role for the MILF in the south, commanders of the group are taking a more moderate stance in regards to bin Laden and the Taliban. After being routed from their bases during intense fighting with government forces last year, MILF commanders also fear that Manila would enlist U.S. support in crushing the movement if it took a more radical position. The group is following the example of the Palestinian Authority in becoming more moderate, at least in speech, following the Sept. 11 attacks.
Although the MILF leadership is seeking to distance itself from the attacks on the United States, the potential for dissention among the ranks remains as does the possibility that new offshoot extremist and militant groups will form. However, the Islamic community in the Philippines has, on the whole, agreed to ignore bin Laden's call, according to the Philippine ABS-CBN news network.
With the U.S. campaign against terrorism intensifying, the bin Laden-linked Abu Sayyaf is finding itself without friends, even among other Islamic militants in the Philippines. As the larger groups go more "mainstream," the more radical groups like the Abu Sayyaf will be increasingly pushed to the fringe, finding it harder to shelter in territory controlled by the larger MILF and MNLF.
Although the government's fight against separatism and terrorism is far from over, the Sept. 11 attacks may ironically have improved the Philippine government's chances of breaking up the Abu Sayyaf network, leaving the group fragmented.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Philippines - Abu Sayyaf . . .