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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Radicals' Rise Weakening Arafat
October 12, 2001
Summary
Opposition to the U.S. bombing campaign against Afghanistan is mounting throughout the Muslim world. In the Palestinian territories, clashes between security forces and Islamic protesters left three people dead Oct. 8. The incident has weakened Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, forcing him to turn to radical Islamist groups to help maintain peace. Arafat's predicament mirrors that of many other regimes in the Muslim world. His weakened position will limit his ability to negotiate with Israel and cooperate with the United States.
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat donates blood in Gaza hospital September 12, 2001, for the victims of terrorist attacks in the United States the destroyed the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center and severely damaged the Pentagon. Palestinians said they sympathized with the victims of the attack in the United States despite their criticism of U.S. support for Israel during the Palestinian uprising.
Photo Credit: Ahmed Jadallah / Reuters.
Analysis
The U.S.-led bombing campaign against Afghanistan has triggered open clashes -- some deadly -- between militant Islamists and security forces throughout the Muslim world. In Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Israel and Pakistan, demonstrations have become running battles between security forces and protesters, leaving hundreds wounded or arrested.
Perhaps the deadliest clash occurred Oct. 8, when three people were killed and more than 200 wounded in Gaza City, a stronghold of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The battles reflect a growing divide in many Islamic societies between radical elements and governments. Unrest in many of these countries -- fueled by poverty -- could challenge the current regimes. For instance, although discord between the Palestinian Authority and supporters of radical Islamist groups has smoldered for years, the common struggle against Israel generally has kept internal tension from giving way to open conflict. The Oct. 8 clashes, however, reveal a rift that will likely widen in the coming days and could bode ill for Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat's continued control over the territories.
In order to keep a lid on unrest, Arafat will be forced to seek cooperation from militant Islamist groups. Cutting deals with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in order to maintain peace, however, betrays Arafat's lessening popular support and also weakens his negotiating position with Israel and the United States.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Radicals' Rise Weakening Arafat . . .