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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Return to China
October 15, 2001
Summary
Since its earliest months in office, the Bush administration appeared to be focusing on China as the biggest threat to the United States. But that changed dramatically after the events of Sept. 11. While China could see some benefits from the new U.S. focus, it must be wary of an increase in its own domestic Islamic threat as well as of the burgeoning U.S.-Russian relationship.
Analysis
Before Sept. 11 there was no more important or troubling relationship for the United States than the one it had with China. After Sept. 11 China seemingly dropped off the map. This week, though, China returns to the public consciousness.
The annual summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Conference takes place in Shanghai, the city that symbolized China's capitalist surge. A number of leaders will gather this weekend, including U.S. President George W. Bush, who in the midst of war still decided he cannot afford to miss the summit.
In a deep sense, APEC is an anachronism. First, it is redolent of the days before 1997 when governments in the Pacific basin, especially in East and Southeast Asia, were seen as the emerging dominant powers of the 21st Century. Each meeting of APEC was filled with drama, with the focus on the fundamental global issue of how the world in general -- and the United States in particular -- would cope with Asia's growing economic dominance.
Second, APEC is built around the core assumption that defined the post-Cold War world, which was that economics had supplanted politics, geopolitics and military affairs in defining relations among nations. APEC was seen as a transnational institution that would help liberate economic creativity from the archaic constraints of the nation-state. It was seen as the potential heir to the European Union and NAFTA but on an even grander and more ambitious scale.
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(Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
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Return to China . . .