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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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U.S. Policy Toward Arab States Gets Aggressive
October day, 2001
Summary
U.S. foreign policy has become more aggressive since the beginning of the air war in Afghanistan. Washington has threatened Iraq and Syria and has stationed aircraft near Lebanon. The strategy seems designed to cow both potential enemies and allies into cooperation.
Analysis
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage expressed disappointment Oct. 11 with Syria's level of support for U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. Asked about potential consequences for countries that do not meet U.S. expectations, he said, "The consequences might ... [run] the gamut from isolation to financial investigations, all the way up through possibly military action," the Associated Press reported.
In the days since the first air strikes on Afghanistan, Washington publicly has threatened Iraq with military action, stationed an aircraft carrier near suspected Islamic militant camps in Lebanon and publicly speculated on ways to coerce the Syrian government into cracking down on terrorism. These moves appear designed to give Washington a diplomatic edge by intimidating certain regimes.
All sides believe U.S. military action is unlikely, but the risks are too high for these states to take a chance on calling Washington's bluff. This means that, in the short term, Washington will get more cooperation from Syria and Lebanon -- and from other Muslim nations it has not threatened -- and Iraq will refrain from any serious military activity.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
U.S. Policy Toward Arab States Gets Aggressive . . .