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Sharon's Troubled Coalition
October 16, 2001
Summary
Two Israeli Cabinet ministers resigned Oct. 15, while another minister -- a member of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's rightist Likud party -- threatened to resign. The U.S. decision to back a Palestinian state has weakened Sharon's governing coalition. Mounting pressure from Israel's political right will force Sharon into greater dependence on the center-left Labor party and set the stage for a power struggle with former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Analysis
On Oct. 15 the National Union-Yisrael Beiteinu faction formally announced its resignation from the Israeli ruling coalition, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's 7-month-old unity government. The resignation, which was intended to counter a renewed U.S.-backed initiative for peace talks with the Palestinians, cost Sharon seven seats in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, the Jerusalem Post reported.
Sharon's coalition -- anchored by the center-left Labor party and the ultra-orthodox Shas -- remains stable for now, with a 76-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament. The resignations, however, do reveal mounting dissatisfaction within Israel's far right over Sharon's political compromises. A split within the rightist camp will heighten the prime minister's dependence on the center-left Labor Party, straining Israel's relationship with the United States and any negotiations with the Palestinians in the near term.
Although the turn of events does not mean an imminent sea change within the government, reliance on Labor will be an ironic twist of fate for hard-liner Sharon. The shift also sets the stage for what promises to be a very ugly battle between Sharon and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a fellow Likud member. Netanyahu wants to return to politics and needs the Likud leadership to do so.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Sharon's Troubled Coalition . . .