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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Credibility, Diplomacy and Military Reality
October 16, 2001
Summary
As the U.S. air campaign shifts to attacks on Taliban troops, Washington is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain both broad international support and cooperation from the various factions on the ground in Afghanistan. While the former requires the United States to dial back on the air war, the later requires credible evidence that Washington will remain committed to the battle at hand. Balancing these coalition-building needs with the military realities of Afghanistan leaves Washington with few good choices.
Analysis
As the U.S. air campaign shifts to attacks on Taliban troops, the Bush administration finds itself increasingly trapped between its grand strategy of international coalition-building, its internal Afghan strategy of energizing anti-Taliban forces and a complex and difficult military reality. The easy part of the war is over for Washington; the hard part is starting.
Coalition-building is the foundation for all American warfighting in Eurasia. It is partly driven by America's desire to position itself as the leading power of a broad international movement opposed to a particular nation -- be it Iraq, Yugoslavia or Afghanistan.
This desire is driven by more than sentiment. Whenever the United States goes to war in Eurasia, its forces automatically and overwhelmingly are outnumbered by those of the country it is fighting. Even if the adversary is technically primitive, numbers still count. The United States needs to bolster its forces with allies for military as well as psychological reasons.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Credibility, Diplomacy and Military Reality . . .