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STRATFOR.com
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Uzbekistan Seeking Regional Dominance
October 17, 2001
Summary
Uzbekistan has long considered itself the dominant power in Central Asia, and now with the United States establishing a military presence in the country for the long term, Tashkent is growing even stronger. But Russia's ambitions in the region and its importance to Washington will ultimately thwart Uzbekistan's plans.
Analysis
About three weeks ago, the United States began shipping men and materiel to the Khanabad air base near Karshi in southern Uzbekistan. U.S. forces look set to be engaged on Uzbek soil for several years, as the battle for Afghanistan's future is sizing up to be only the first in a series of protracted military campaigns.
Tashkent will use the U.S. presence and support to upgrade its military capabilities and further its goal of Central Asia domination. But Russia's cooperation with America will prevent Uzbekistan's ambitions from becoming a reality.
Uzbekistan is Central Asia's largest, richest and most populous state, and for 10 years, it has sought to build a regional hegemony. None of its neighbors can match the country's economic, military or diplomatic superiority, and as long as it doesn't try to take control of the Russian-dominated oil fields in Kazakhstan, even Moscow is largely content to let Uzbekistan play prince in the Central Asian sandbox.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Uzbekistan Seeking Regional Dominance . . .