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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Al Qaeda's Egyptian Leaders
October 18, 2001
Summary
Egyptian radicals comprise the senior leadership of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. Washington is now moving to dismantle the network by removing bin Laden and his Egyptian lieutenants, but a new generation of extremists would likely replace these leaders and potentially cloud the picture that U.S. intelligence is trying to clarify.
Analysis
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has ordered the military to interrogate 250 suspected Islamic radicals, including 170 alleged members of the outlawed militant group Gamaat al-Islamiyya, according to News 24, a South African news agency. The crackdown is aimed at pre-empting a surge of unrest in Egypt led by Islamic militants.
Egypt has a history of Islamic radicalism, and many of its adherents have intimate ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. In fact, Egyptians make up the single largest faction within al Qaeda and play a key role in its senior leadership. As a result, al Qaeda reflects the agenda and training of these Egyptian dissidents. Washington's knowledge of al Qaeda, gained through its relationship with Cairo, has proven useful in formulating a target list for its war on terrorism.
The intelligence, however, could prove to be a double-edged sword. Removing bin Laden's Egyptian lieutenants could allow a second tier of leaders to rise to the top, potentially altering the group's agenda and making it more difficult to identify and combat.
(The Rest of the Story)
Related Analyses:
* Egypt: A Precarious Ally
2150 GMT, 010918
* U.S. Faces Islamic Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
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