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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Kashmir: Islamabad's Distraction Threatens U.S. Forces
October 24, 2001
Summary
Tensions continue to escalate along the Line of Control separating Indian- and Pakistani-controlled sections of Kashmir, despite strong words of caution from U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. Attacks by Pakistani-based militants against Indian forces have brought both Indian and Pakistani troops closer to the line, threatening the tenuous stability there. As Kashmir heats up, it may divert Islamabad's attention and resources away from western Pakistan, where U.S. troops involved in operations against Afghanistan have already come under fire.
Analysis
Pakistan's military is responding to Indian troop movements along the Line of Control, a cease-fire line that divides the disputed Kashmir region between India and arch rival Pakistan, the Pakistani daily Dawn reported. Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations Directorate said Islamabad was taking precautionary measures in response to Indian troop movements, which are said to include bringing heavy artillery and mortar guns closer to the frontier.
The escalating tensions in Kashmir are of great concern to Washington. Pakistan's cooperation is vital for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, and another border clash with India could throw this off track. Even if things don't come to blows along the frontier, Islamabad's distraction with Kashmir could thin security forces in the west, increasing the risk for U.S. military personnel operating out of Pakistan.
If Washington can no longer be confident of Pakistan's safety as a haven for troops and rescue operations, U.S. military planners will face an extremely difficult situation -- one that could seriously slow the Afghanistan operation and increase the risks.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Kashmir: Islamabad's Distraction Threatens U.S. Forces . . .