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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Philippines: Coup Rumors Likely False
October 30, 2001
Summary
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has denied rumors that plans for a coup are afoot. Even if rumors of a plot are true, Arroyo is in no political danger at this time; elements for a successful coup are simply not in place.
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo walks with Chinese President Jiang Zemin during a review of the honor guard on Tuesday outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Photo Credit: Agence France-Presse.
Analysis
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on Oct. 29 denied that her former political allies are plotting a coup in the Philippines. Presidential advisers claimed allies of Arroyo's ousted predecessor, President Joseph Estrada, started the rumors, according to Agence France-Presse.
The government in Manila must treat any whispers of a coup seriously. Attempts to oust the president have become a political standard since the first People Power revolution in 1986, which ended the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. Estrada fell from power in January after finding himself on the wrong side of corruption charges. The current political situation, however, is not ripe for Arroyo's removal. Barring some heinous act that would turn the public against her, such as involvement in corruption, she likely will complete her term as president.
Stability in the Philippines is more important now than ever to United States. The Christian Science Monitor has chronicled links between Muslim separatists and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network, and the Philippines could become a planning ground for future terrorist actions. Washington needs stability in the Philippines and full cooperation from the archipelago for the U.S.-led international coalition against terrorism to succeed.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Philippines: Coup Rumors Likely False . . .