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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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The Return of "Fortress Europe"?
October 31, 2001
Summary
Evidence of terror cells active throughout Europe is strengthening the position of anti-immigration advocates throughout the Continent. This will lead to greater calls to tighten immigration policies and restrict the free movement of labor. But such policies would have negative implications for long-term European growth and integration.
Analysis
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Oct. 30 marked the 40th anniversary of the initiation of the "Gastarbeiter" program, which brought in millions of Turkish guest workers needed to overcome a severe post-war labor shortage. Schroeder called for greater integration into the German population of ethnic Turks, who now comprise 2.5 million of Germany's population of 82 million.
The anniversary comes at a curious time for Germany; it highlights a brewing conflict in Europe over immigration policy, security, demographics and the economy. The discovery of terrorist cells active throughout Europe is strengthening the hand of anti-immigration elements on the Continent, and it threatens to reverse a trend away from a "fortress Europe" and toward a more open and standardized policy on immigration.
Terrorism fears could also hamper efforts to promote the free movement of labor across the Continent while raising tensions within the European Union. Both immigration and the free movement of labor are integral to the long-term economic growth of a demographically maturing Europe. Retrenchment on these issues, either by Brussels or by select national governments, will put additional pressures on the European labor market, pension systems and economic growth.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Return of "Fortress Europe" . . . ?