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STRATFOR.com
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Venezuelan President Near the Edge
November 1, 2001
Summary
With both oil prices and his popularity falling, the Venezuelan president's chances of staying in power for more than a year appear less and less likely. Even worse, a rift is developing between the president and the country's armed forces, and this could potentially lead to a coup in the near future.
Analysis
In a recent speech to a small group of his supporters, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said defiantly he would rule the country until 2013, the maximum allowed under the new constitution approved in 2000. But with his support falling and opposition growing, it is becoming increasingly likely Chavez will be forced out of power within a year, possibly through a military coup which many Venezuelans would support.
The pillars that upheld the Chavez regime for nearly three years are already crumbling. Barring an unexpected spike in oil prices, Chavez's popularity will collapse in the coming months as the economy stagnates, and his erratic behavior will increase his isolation at home and abroad.
When the Chavez's presidency began in early 1999, the stability of his regime rested on three things: immense popular support, which topped 85 percent of voters early on; high oil prices that peaked at $30 per barrel last year (but which have since dropped to under $17 a barrel); and the loyalty of Venezuela's armed forces.
But it has been clear for some time now that retaining the military's backing depends on Chavez's ability to stay popular, maintain high oil prices and keep the armed forces happy by dispensing promotions and higher salaries. If he cannot do these things, the military's loyalty will likely implode.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Venezuelan President Near the Edge . . .