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Sri Lanka: Rebels Won't Buy Presidential Ploy
November 2, 2001
Summary
Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga reversed her position on negotiating with the Tamil Tigers rebel group Oct. 30, saying they do not have to lay down arms to hold discussions with the government. She hopes that gaining favor with the group will help her ruling party win the support of minority parties before the Dec. 5 election. But the Tigers will likely increase their military offensive before the polls, and no matter who the victor, the country will continue to suffer rebel attacks.
Analysis
Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga abandoned her previously uncompromising stance on negotiating with the country's Tamil Tiger rebel group Oct. 30, offering to hold talks without requiring the group to decommission their weapons. The president hopes to gain political support for her ruling People's Alliance party by bringing the rebels to the discussion table.
But the Tigers will likely decline the proposal and instead respond with increased violence. The island's war-racked population will retaliate at the polls by giving neither the ruling party nor its main opposition, the United National Party, a majority in parliament. Though the Tigers could agree to a short-lived cease-fire should the United National Party succeed in forming a ruling coalition, separatist violence in the country will continue.
The rebel group is battling for Tamil independence in the island's northern and eastern regions. It threatens Sri Lankan industries, and attacks on airports and planes cause the tourism industry to suffer. An Oct. 30 attack on an oil tanker will also likely have adverse effects on Sri Lanka's shipping of exports and imports in the future.
Kumaratunga's offer signals the president's political desperation, as her party experiences defections and as more minority parties side with the main opposition. Rauf Hakeem's Sri Lanka Muslim Congress party defected from the ruling coalition in June -- the same day he lost his position as transportation minister. The defection caused a political crisis, with parliament debating on a vote of no confidence against the president.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Sri Lanka: Rebels Won't Buy Presidential Ploy . . .