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STRATFOR.com
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Tehran Struggles with Domestic Impact of U.S. Action
November 6, 2001
Summary
As Uzbek and Tajik factions of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance posture and launch piecemeal assaults on Taliban positions, the Iranian-backed Hazara factions have done little. This reticence could reflect political maneuvering by Iran. But signs are emerging that Tehran is neglecting the Afghan war because of its destabilizing impact on domestic politics.
Analysis
Afghanistan's Northern Alliance is preparing to launch simultaneous attacks on Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif, spokesman Haron Amin told reporters Nov. 5. Arif said the offensive could begin in about a week, but only if opposition forces receive additional weapons, supplies and air support from the United States.
Since Sept. 11, the Northern Alliance has staged a series of offensives against the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, though fitfully and with limited success. The opposition's political and military activity has been concentrated among the Russian-backed Tajik and Uzbek factions of the Northern Alliance, with little apparent support from the Iranian-backed Hazaras. Though the limited showing of the Hazara on the battlefield could be the result of Tehran's foreign policy maneuvering, it appears more likely that Iranian reticence stems from the war's destabilizing impact on Iranian domestic politics.
Washington has expressed concern that U.S. military action in Afghanistan could spark threats from Islamic militants to the regimes of such regional allies as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Unexpectedly, it appears to be igniting a challenge to the Iranian regime from pro-Western factions. This will force the Iranian government to seek self-preservation by rallying behind a more hard-line, anti-U.S. position.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Tehran Struggles with Domestic Impact of U.S. Action . . .