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STRATFOR.com
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Ground War Strategies Part 3: The U.S. Mission
November 9, 2001
Introduction
This analysis is a study of what a U.S. ground campaign in Afghanistan will look like. Drawn entirely from public sources, the study in no way provides an advantage to any combatant who would have superior sources of intelligence, deeper experience in warfare and more intimate knowledge of terrain. This reported is intended to benefit the citizens of all combatant countries and is designed to inform them, in as objective a fashion as possible, of the issues involved in a land war in Afghanistan.
Summary
The United States is now weighing options for launching a large-scale ground offensive in Afghanistan. In order to understand the menu of choices, military planners must first identify characteristics of the theater of operations that will determine the shape of battle. In treating the Afghan theater of operations in isolation, the critical question is whether the United States can impose a comprehensive military solution.
Analysis
The U.S. military campaign has two goals in Afghanistan. Its primary objective is to destroy the al Qaeda network, but U.S. forces cannot rout al Qaeda so long as the Taliban regime, which provides safe haven for the group and has refused to negotiate with Washington, remains in power. Therefore the secondary target -- the Taliban -- must be disabled first.
Bringing down the Taliban and destroying al Qaeda's network in Afghanistan will not dismantle the network's global operations. Nonetheless, the military campaign in Afghanistan will disrupt al Qaeda's planning and training capabilities, hindering its ability to mount attacks against the United States. It will also satisfy another U.S. goal: discouraging other countries from providing safe haven to terrorists by demonstrating that doing so is unacceptable and carries a price.
* Afghanistan: The Theater of Operations
* The U.S. Ground Campaign
* The Enemy Defined
* The Battlefield
* Terrain and Topography
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The U.S. Mission . . .