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Cuba: Nowhere to Turn?
November 13, 2001
Summary
Cuba's economy is swooning in the wake of Sept. 11 and Hurricane Michelle. Meanwhile international allies appear to be abandoning or ignoring Havana. With the world now in flux, Cuba may alter its posture toward the United States.
Analysis
Hurricane Michelle struck Cuba head-on Nov. 4 -- the most financially devastating storm ever to hit the island nation, Vice President Carlos Lage has said.
Not only storm damage but also economic and political stresses resulting from the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States are forcing Havana to reassess its position among nations. With ties to Russia waning and the position of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez increasingly tenuous, Havana is becoming more isolated. Though President Fidel Castro will continue to resist direct engagement with the United States, he may increasingly seek to chip away at the U.S. economic blockade in order to stimulate Cuba's economy.
In the United States, this will raise the level of debate over whether to allow access to Cuban markets, something the Bush administration has so far resisted strongly. It may also mute Havana's anti-American rhetoric. Meanwhile, Cuba's economic situation will worsen as Castro calls for patriotic sacrifices and blames financial woes on the outside world.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Cuba: Nowhere to Turn . . . ?