These turkeys are going to be slaughtered, and rightfully so, when they try to withdraw from Kandahar and escape to the relative safety of the mountain caves.

Taliban choose guerrilla war, but maybe too late

By Andrew Marshall, Reuters, 11/16/01

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Reports that the Taliban have decided to withdraw from their southern bastion of Kandahar, the last major city held by the fundamentalist militia, signal the conflict in Afghanistan has entered a new phase -- guerrilla war.

Battered by a lightning ground offensive by their Afghan foes backed by devastating U.S. aerial firepower, the Taliban seem to have concluded they cannot win a conventional war against their enemies and that it is not worth losing their lives trying.

Analysts say the Taliban seem to be planning to vanish into the mountains, hiding in caves and remote valleys and staging a guerrilla campaign to harass their opponents -- particularly the foreign troops likely to be sent into Afghanistan.

The Taliban itself has repeatedly said its recent stunning territorial losses were part of a "tactical retreat."

It is a credible strategy, analysts say.

The rugged and inhospitable Afghan terrain is perfect for small groups of guerrilla fighters to mount lightning strikes and then melt away -- as the mujahideen of the 1980s showed when they stood up to, and drove out, the might of the Soviet army.

But they may have left it too late.

Analysts say a Taliban withdrawal from Kandahar could turn into a bloodbath as they try to reach the mountains through the flat plains around the city, which will afford them no shelter from U.S. strikes aimed at picking them off from the sky.

"There is going to be a massacre of Taliban," Afghanistan expert Ahmed Rashid told Reuters.

"They are going to be under constant attack from the sky before they reach the safety of the mountains," said Rashid, a Pakistani journalist who has covered the country for 20 years and whose book on the Taliban has topped bestseller lists.