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Taliban Withdrawal Was Strategy, Not Rout
November 15, 2001

Summary
In less than a week, Taliban fighters have been swept from most of northern Afghanistan, including the key cities of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kunduz, Taloqan, Bamiyan, Jalalabad and the capital Kabul. How did a force that only two months ago controlled most of Afghanistan get swept from the battlefield so quickly, and is the battle over? Evidence suggests it has only just begun.

Analysis
Northern Alliance troops moved into Kabul on Nov. 13, less than a week after launching an offensive that has swept the Taliban from most of northern Afghanistan.

The Northern Alliance now controls the key cities of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kunduz and Taloqan, all located astride vital supply routes into neighboring countries. Popular uprisings have reportedly ousted the Taliban from Bamiyan and Jalalabad, and there are even reports of anti-Taliban Pushtun forces marching on Kandahar. On the surface it appears a lightning offensive by the Northern Alliance -- supported by U.S. aerial bombardment -- has shattered the Taliban army in a matter of days. But have the Taliban been defeated? An examination of the Taliban withdrawal suggests the group has intentionally surrendered territory in the interest of adopting tactics more amenable to its strengths.

If the United States and its allies misread the Taliban withdrawal as a rout, they could quickly find themselves locked in a nasty guerrilla war in Afghanistan. Worse, that war is likely to spread beyond Afghanistan's borders, as the core of Taliban and al Qaeda forces in that country seek to secure their supply lines and capitalize on their strengths and their opponents' weaknesses.

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(Story Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.

I agree with the above, but I believe the support that Stratfor attributes the surrounding nations as holding toward the Taliban is far outweighed with the very real threat of global retaliation. This region has recently learned that the Allies will limit their personal ground forces in Afghanistan, while aiding the indigenous enemies of the Taliban. This will force many to hesitate in their support of the Taliban. The world changes when somebody you think is really cool hands you a rifle and says you now have to die for his cause and your desire to be like him.

A rout? Definitely.

A trap? Very likely, but as a contingency the Taliban did not wish to fall back on.

It is now up to the Allied Forces to continue the assault, chancing the Taliban through the mountains and obliterating them, totally.

Dan