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OPEC Price War Won't Sink Russia
November 19, 2001
Summary
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has forced a confidence vote on his coalition government, possibly in the hope that it will lead to early elections next year. Moving the elections up would benefit his Social Democratic Party, allowing him to establish a stronger ruling coalition and more firmly assert his foreign policy goals.
Analysis
In a bold political move, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is turning a Nov. 16 vote on whether to deploy German troops to Afghanistan into a vote of confidence in his coalition government. The junior coalition partner Green Party is split over the troop issue, and without its support, the confidence vote could fail. However, that may be just what Schroeder wants.
A no-vote would allow the chancellor to call early elections, with his Social Democrat party now in its best position for a strong national showing. Schroeder would also be able to unload his increasingly troublesome Green partner and mold a more suitable coalition for the next four years with the pro-business Free Democrats party (FDP).
Although immediate military participation in Afghanistan would be sacrificed, Schroeder would be in a stronger position to pursue his foreign policy ambitions, more firmly asserting Germany's military participation in the anti-terrorism campaign and its leadership on the world stage.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
OPEC Price War Won't Sink Russia . . .