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Ground War Strategies Part 5: Peacekeepers' Dilemma
November 16, 2001
Summary
British and French troops have begun establishing a presence in Afghanistan to prepare the way for a multinational peacekeeping force. Peacekeepers will be deployed along borders between ethnic groups when possible in order to avoid tension with local Afghans. But although this will quickly improve conditions in some areas, it will also hasten the country's fragmentation.
Analysis
A Nov. 14 resolution by the U.N. Security Council encourages all nations to help ensure the safety of Afghan areas no longer under Taliban control. As part of such an effort, about 100 British troops landed at Bagram airport north of Kabul on Nov. 15 to prepare the facility for humanitarian tasks, according to the British Ministry of Defense. Several thousand additional British soldiers are scheduled to arrive in Afghanistan in the coming days.
A multinational peacekeeping operation in Afghanistan will provide convenient political cover for U.S. involvement there. But some peacekeepers will become the target of harassment and attacks. Others, such as forces from Turkey, will work well with Afghan factions but could also contribute to ethnic fragmentation, making the possibility of a lasting peace even more remote.
With the Taliban withdrawing from cities and moving into the mountains after the recent Northern Alliance advance, the United States and its coalition partners are faced with the need to bring a measure of stability to Afghanistan. The United States has little hope for a robust liberal democracy to flourish in the Afghan rubble. But Washington is under international pressure to bring in relief supplies and pre-empt a repeat of past ethnic violence.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Peacekeepers' Dilemma . . .