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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Afghanistan: Extremist Diaspora Will Fuel Expanded Conflict
November 21, 2001
Summary
The Taliban's withdrawal into the mountains is making Afghanistan an ineffective base for militant Muslims. Many foreign-born members of al Qaeda and the Taliban, cut off from their infrastructure and under attack from Afghans and U.S. forces, will try to leave the country. A number of these operatives will attempt to return to their home countries - or go to others not under U.S. bombardment -- and resume militant activities.
Analysis
Some 50 Filipinos suspected of training with al Qaeda in Afghanistan have started slipping back into the Philippines through mostly Muslim-dominated islands in the south, according to immigration authorities cited by the Philippine Daily Inquirer. A Philippine government source told the paper the suspected terrorists began arriving soon after the Northern Alliance started overrunning Taliban strongholds in Afghanistan.
The Taliban's retreat over the past two weeks has made Afghanistan a much less effective base for militant Muslims. Many foreign-born members of al Qaeda and the Taliban will try to leave the country, although many won't get past Pakistan or even the Afghan border. Still others will be apprehended when they arrive in their home countries, but some will slip through the cracks and resume operations.
The Taliban's position in Afghanistan has been upended, with the group losing control of about 70 percent of the country. Taliban loyalists who are not surrounded in Kunduz or Kandahar have taken to the hills to begin a more guerrilla-style war. Other members of the country's majority Pushtun population, of which many were only marginal Taliban sympathizers to begin with, have simply switched loyalties to the Northern Alliance.
But many of the Taliban's foreign fighters are not surrendering. These fighters, known as "Afghan Arabs," include not just Arab nationals but also Filipinos, Chinese Uighers, Indonesians, Malaysians, Bosnians and Chechens. Some have lived in Afghanistan since the 1980s while others moved in once the Taliban took control. Estimates of their number range from 10,000 to 25,000.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Afghanistan: Extremist Diaspora Will Fuel Expanded Conflict . . .